Below
is my rationale for how I would vote for the Hall of Fame if I had a ballot. I
was going to write something short about steroids, wound up writing something long,
and know that many people would rather be stuck on a deserted island with
Stanford’s mascot than read about PEDs. So instead of including that as part of
this piece I posted it separately
if you’re interested.
There
are three criteria that I primarily use when considering Hall of Fame worthiness,
listed below in order of importance:
1)
Strength of career
Players
with a 70+ rWAR are of Hall of Fame caliber. Players with less than 70 rWAR but
over 60 are generally Hall of Famers. A 63 rWAR is sort of the unofficial line;
players below this number who have made it into the Hall are either weaker
candidates or primarily peak candidates.
2)
Strength of peak
Players
with five or more seasons in the Top 10% of rWAR among either hitters or
pitchers are strong peak candidates. Players with four seasons that meet this
criteria are decent peak candidates.
3)
Comparables in the Hall of Fame
This
looks at the 10 players who match up closest based on Baseball Reference’s similarity score. This methodology is
admittedly weak; players with high raw totals in counting stats are rewarded
while players with strong career numbers that don’t match up in raw counting
stats are penalized. All of this being said, players with similar “comps” in
the Hall are worth considering, particularly if they meet the criteria for
either overall dominance (#1) or peak dominance (#2)
So
among this year’s serious and semi-serious candidates, who meets these criteria
and who fails to do so?
Player
|
WAR
|
Peak Seasons
|
Comparables
|
Total
|
162.53
|
17
|
6
|
3
|
|
140.3
|
12
|
7
|
3
|
|
106.83
|
8
|
9
|
3
|
|
83.01
|
6
|
4
|
2
|
|
79.92
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
|
71.77
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
|
68.28
|
5
|
0
|
2
|
|
64.94
|
4
|
7
|
2
|
|
81.43
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
|
79.48
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
|
73.64
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
72.63
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
70.35
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
|
69.07
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
|
59.2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
|
58.42
|
2
|
7
|
1
|
|
44.06
|
2
|
5
|
1
|
|
62.05
|
4
|
2
|
0
|
|
55.19
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
|
52.56
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
|
51.51
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
|
51.43
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
|
42.24
|
3
|
2
|
0
|
|
39.67
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Moises
Alou was the player with the lowest WAR with at least one peak season (Top 10%
among qualifiers in hitter or pitcher WAR) so he serves as the cut-off. Lee
Smith is the only perennial vote getter that gets knocked off using this
methodology, which is fine by me. I like Lee Smith, but outside of the saves,
his numbers aren’t Hall of Fame worthy.
Alou,
Gonzalez, Mattingly, McGriff, Morris, and Rogers all fall into my definite no
category. All of them had nice careers but don’t make it into the Hall of Fame
stratosphere and I don’t see it as particularly close.
Kent,
McGwire, and Sosa are closer but don’t make it for me either. Kent had a very
good career but falls short on WAR and only had a couple of elite-level
seasons. Some “big Hall” proponents will include him; if this is your
philosophical bent, I can see why Kent would belong for you.
Sosa
and particularly McGwire are tougher omissions. Sosa is a good example of why
the Baseball Reference comps can be
deceiving. Because of Sosa’s high home run total, he falls in with a
significant number of Hall of Famers when you look at his unadjusted career
numbers. However, Sosa’s lifetime 128+ OPS puts him on a par with players like
Ryan Klesko, Jim Rice, and Tim Salmon. His case mostly rests on a five-year
peak (1998-2002) that was great, but during a time when a number of players put
up strong peaks as well. McGwire had some individually great seasons, but
because he missed so much time due to injury only logged 7,660 career plate
appearances. McGwire has a stronger peak case than Sosa but – again – the peak
is less impressive when you compare McGwire to his peers and consider the
high-octane offensive era during which he played. McGwire is right on the cusp
for me; I can see why he would be worth inducting, but my choice is no.
This
leaves 15 players who I believe are worthy of Hall of Fame induction; I’ve
pulled that part of the table down again for easy reference:
Player
|
WAR
|
Peak Seasons
|
Comparables
|
Total
|
Barry Bonds
|
162.53
|
17
|
6
|
3
|
Roger Clemens
|
140.3
|
12
|
7
|
3
|
Greg Maddux
|
106.83
|
8
|
9
|
3
|
Mike Mussina
|
83.01
|
6
|
4
|
2
|
Curt Schilling
|
79.92
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
71.77
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
Edgar Martinez
|
68.28
|
5
|
0
|
2
|
Craig Biggio
|
64.94
|
4
|
7
|
2
|
Tom Glavine
|
81.43
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
79.48
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
Frank Thomas
|
73.64
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
Larry Walker
|
72.63
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
Alan Trammell
|
70.35
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
Tim Raines
|
69.07
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
Mike Piazza
|
59.2
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
Bonds,
Clemens, and Maddux are no brainers. The trio is among the best players to ever
play the game there is no statistical argument against their admission.
Mussina
and Schilling get the next slots on my ballot. Their status on my ballot is the
converse of the McGwire/Sosa argument. Both pitchers were great for a prolonged
period of time during an unprecedented era for hitters. Both their career
numbers and peak numbers pass the test easily.
That
leaves 10 players for five slots. I agree with the chorus of smart writers who
say that any of the top 15 players are worthy Hall selections, and that there
aren’t really any wrong choices among this group. But the BBWAA rules only
allow for 10 ballot slots, so that leaves me trying to sift through varying
degrees of greatness.
What
Edgar Martinez doesn’t have in longevity, he makes up for with more elite peak
seasons than any of the other hitters on this list except for Bonds. Lost in
Martinez’s value is the fact that he played 3 ½ seasons as a third baseman
before a freak injury turned him into a DH. Those seasons at the hot corner
push Edgar over the top.
Craig
Biggio’s WAR is lower than most of the candidates here, but he gets some extra
credit for playing two demanding positions for the vast majority of his career.
The 3,000 hits are what will put him on the ballot for many traditional voters,
but his combination of career numbers, peak seasons, and value at second base
are what put him on my ballot.
The
arguments against Tom Glavine mostly revolve around the idea that he is
“overrated” and a borderline Hall of Fame candidate as opposed to an ironclad
lock. He certainly isn’t Maddux, but Glavine is much closer to Mussina and
Schilling than he is to Jack Morris. Glavine gets on the ballot for the same
reasons Moose and Schill did: as an acknowledgement that he was one of the
greatest pitchers during an incredible hitters’ era.
Jeff
Bagwell, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell, and Larry Walker were all so
close that I simply used their career WAR to break the tie. That left Raines,
Trammell, and Walker on the outside looking in. It’s incredibly unfair to leave
any of these guys off, and it is really, really close. We have witnessed some
incredible players over the last 20-30 years; it is a shame that steroids or
the perception of the steroid era (depending upon your perspective) is creating
this ballot logjam and forcing these thankless decisions.
Rafael
Palmeiro is a Hall of Famer in my mind but not in my Top 10. He had one top 10
offensive season (in 1993) and three top 15 seasons (including 1993) in his
career. He was consistent enough across his long career to put him over the top
but the big career totals mask the fact that Palmeiro was not anywhere near the
hitter that Bagwell, Thomas, and Walker were during their careers. I am fine
with accumulation candidates making the Hall, but on this ballot Palmeiro
doesn’t get a spot.
Mike
Piazza is a tough omission. He misses based on WAR, but catcher is the one
position where I feel that a different standard must be applied. He compares
favorably to Hall of Famers Yogi Berra, Bill Dickey, and Mickey Cochrane. I
left him off simply because there were so many deserving candidates and even
with positional adjustments Piazza’s peak doesn’t quite measure up to the other
candidates on the ballot. Piazza is a deserving candidate who didn’t make my
cut but most definitely could have.
So
my final 10:
Jeff
Bagwell
Craig
Biggio
Barry
Bonds
Roger
Clemens
Tom
Glavine
Greg
Maddux
Edgar
Martinez
Mike
Mussina
Curt
Schilling
Frank
Thomas
